Probability-Ordering Bridge — @cite{kratzer-2012} #
Connects probability assignments to Kratzer ordering sources.
A probability assignment P over worlds induces an ordering source where more probable worlds are ranked higher. For each world v, the ordering source generates the proposition "at least as probable as v": λ w => P(w) ≥ P(v)
This means w ≥_A z iff every probability threshold that z meets, w also meets, which reduces to P(w) ≥ P(z).
Key result #
When the probability assignment is uniform, the induced ordering is trivial (all worlds equivalent). When skewed, the best worlds are those with maximal probability.
UNVERIFIED reference: Kratzer (2012) Modals and Conditionals, OUP — chapter and section number not checked against the original.
Polymorphic core #
A probability assignment maps worlds to rational probabilities.
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Convert a probability assignment to a Kratzer ordering source over a finite world type.
For each world v in Finset.univ, generate the proposition "at least
as probable as v": w satisfies this iff P(w) ≥ P(v). The resulting
ordering ranks worlds by probability: w ≥_A z iff P(w) ≥ P(z).
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- Semantics.Modality.ProbabilityOrdering.probToOrdering prob x✝ = List.map (fun (v w : W) => prob w ≥ prob v) Finset.univ.toList
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probToOrdering is world-independent: the ordering source is the
same regardless of which evaluation world is chosen.
Convenience reducer: ordering relation reduces to probability comparison
via transitivity over the threshold propositions. If prob w₁ ≥ prob w₂
then w₁ ≥_(probToOrdering prob w) w₂.
Uniform probability makes all worlds equivalent under the ordering.
Concrete examples on Fin 4 #
These examples instantiate the polymorphic core at Fin 4 (a 4-element world set)
for direct demonstration.
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A skewed probability assignment: P(w0) > P(w1) > P(w2) > P(w3).
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A uniform probability assignment: P(w) = 1/4 for all w.
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Under skewed P, best worlds (from universal base) = {w0}. w0 has the highest probability and dominates all others.
Probability ordering preserves ranking: w0 ≥ w1 ≥ w2 ≥ w3.
Strict ordering: w0 > w1 (w0 beats w1 but not vice versa).
Necessity under probability ordering: with skewed P and universal base, any proposition true at w0 is necessary (since best = {w0}).