Hawkins, R. D., Tsvilodub, P., Bergey, C. A., Goodman, N. D. & Franke, M. (2025). Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 380(1932)
The PRIOR-PQ model of Hawkins et al. 2025 explains the answers to polar questions by the
questioner's decision problem. A base respondent gives a random true and safe response, one that
resolves the question for anyone who knows it. The questioner asks the question whose answers
most raise the value of its decision problem, and a pragmatic respondent infers the decision
problem from the question and trades informativity against relevance to it.
Implementation notes
The questioner hearing a response and the respondent hearing a question are RSA.listeners of
the base respondent and of the questioner, so a response no world produces leaves the zero
measure; the questioner and the pragmatic respondent are Kernel.softmax kernels.
The paper defines safety as "not knowing the answer to q entails not knowing whether r",
under which its safe example "Yes, we take Visa" to "Do you take Visa or Mastercard?" would be
unsafe. Safe takes the reading "not knowing r" that the examples force, and applies to a
mention apart from the polar answer it accompanies ("No, but we take American Express").
The displayed respondent utility puts the questioner's updated belief first in the divergence.
The file follows the prose, which puts the respondent's belief first, since only that order
enforces truthfulness; in the displayed order a respondent who knows the world, as in the case
study, finds every response short of a world-identifying one infinitely uninformative.
The paper replaces R0 by the truth-only R0' in the questioner's update as the respondent
models it, since under R0 the update is undefined at unsafe responses. The display primes
only the informativity term; the file uses R0' for relevance too.
The softmax value of a decision problem is not convex in the belief, so a question can have
negative value of information.
TODO
The predicted rates of exhaustive answers, highest after a polar question about an unavailable
card, then after the general question, then after a polar question about an available card,
which depend on the fitted parameters.
The value comparison behind the general question, that after "yes" the decision problem of a
questioner holding American Express has lower value than after the exhaustive list.
The iced tea and blanket case studies, with the elicited utilities.
A response r is safe for the polar question q when not knowing the answer to q entails
not knowing r, that is, when every belief state that knows r resolves q.
The parameters of PRIOR-PQ are the rationalities of the policy, the questioner and the
respondent, the weight of cost, and the weight β of action relevance against informativity.
The base respondent (2.1) answers q at w uniformly among the true and safe responses.
noncomputable defHawkinsEtAl2025.Model.R0{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[CountableW][MeasurableSingletonClassW](q : Q) :
ProbabilityTheory.KernelWR
m.R0q=ProbabilityTheory.Kernel.ofFunOfCountablefun (w : W) => ProbabilityTheory.uniformOn(m.trueSafewq)
The truth-only base respondent R0' (§2c) answers uniformly among the true responses.
noncomputable defHawkinsEtAl2025.Model.R0'{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[CountableW][MeasurableSingletonClassW] :
ProbabilityTheory.KernelWR
m.R0'=ProbabilityTheory.Kernel.ofFunOfCountablefun (w : W) => ProbabilityTheory.uniformOn{r:R|w∈m.responser}
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[CountableW][MeasurableSingletonClassW](q : Q)(w : W) :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[CountableW][MeasurableSingletonClassW](w : W) :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[CountableW][MeasurableSingletonClassW](q : Q) :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[CountableW][MeasurableSingletonClassW] :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[CountableW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FiniteR][MeasurableSingletonClassR]{q : Q}{w : W}{r : R} :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[CountableW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FiniteR][MeasurableSingletonClassR]{w : W}{r : R} :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[CountableW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FiniteR][MeasurableSingletonClassR](q : Q)(w : W)(r : R)[Decidable(r∈m.trueSafewq)] :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[CountableW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FiniteR][MeasurableSingletonClassR]{q : Q}(h : ∀ (w : W), (m.trueSafewq).Nonempty) :
{W : Type u_1}{A : Type u_4}[MeasurableSpaceW][FintypeA]{π π' : MeasureTheory.MeasureW}[MeasureTheory.IsProbabilityMeasureπ][MeasureTheory.IsProbabilityMeasureπ']{U : W → A → ℝ}{c : A → ℝ}(αℵ : ℝ)(hU : ∀ᵐ (w : W) ∂π,Uw=c)(hU' : ∀ᵐ (w : W) ∂π',Uw=c) :
The expected value to the questioner of asking q under the decision problem d (2.3) is
the value of d updated (2.4) by the base respondent's answer, less the weighted cost.
noncomputable defHawkinsEtAl2025.Model.questionScore{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[FintypeA][FintypeW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FiniteR][MeasurableSingletonClassR](p : Params)(d : D)(q : Q) :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[FintypeA][FintypeW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FiniteR][MeasurableSingletonClassR](p : Params)[StandardBorelSpaceW][NonemptyW](d : D)[MeasureTheory.IsFiniteMeasure(m.priord)](q : Q) :
The questioner (2.3) soft-maximizes the question score with rationality αQ.
noncomputable defHawkinsEtAl2025.Model.questioner{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[FintypeA][FintypeW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FiniteR][MeasurableSingletonClassR](p : Params)[MeasurableSpaceQ][FintypeQ][MeasurableSpaceD][CountableD][MeasurableSingletonClassD] :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[FintypeA][FintypeW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FiniteR][MeasurableSingletonClassR](p : Params)[MeasurableSpaceQ][FintypeQ][MeasurableSpaceD][CountableD][MeasurableSingletonClassD] :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[FintypeA][FintypeW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FiniteR][MeasurableSingletonClassR](p : Params)[MeasurableSpaceQ][FintypeQ][MeasurableSpaceD][CountableD][MeasurableSingletonClassD][NonemptyQ] :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[FintypeA][FintypeW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FiniteR][MeasurableSingletonClassR](p : Params)[MeasurableSpaceQ][FintypeQ][MeasurableSingletonClassQ][MeasurableSpaceD][CountableD][MeasurableSingletonClassD](d : D)(q : Q) :
The respondent's belief about the decision problem after hearing q is that of a listener
to the questioner at the prior πD, π(D ∣ q) ∝ Q(q ∣ D) π(D).
noncomputable defHawkinsEtAl2025.Model.goalPosterior{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[FintypeA][FintypeW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FintypeR][MeasurableSingletonClassR](p : Params)[MeasurableSpaceQ][FintypeQ][MeasurableSingletonClassQ][MeasurableSpaceD][FintypeD][MeasurableSingletonClassD](πD : MeasureTheory.MeasureD) :
{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[FintypeA][FintypeW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FintypeR][MeasurableSingletonClassR](p : Params)[MeasurableSpaceQ][FintypeQ][MeasurableSingletonClassQ][MeasurableSpaceD][FintypeD][MeasurableSingletonClassD](πD : MeasureTheory.MeasureD) :
Between decision problems of equal prior, the respondent comes to favour the one under which
the question was the likelier, so a question signals the goal.
The pragmatic respondent's score for answering q with r (2.5) is the expectation over the
inferred decision problem of informativity, weighted by 1 - β, and action relevance, weighted
by β, less the weighted cost. Both terms read the questioner's belief after the truth-only
update, and informativity is its negative divergence from the respondent's belief πW. The
expected divergence is a lower integral, so a response at infinite divergence scores ⊥.
noncomputable defHawkinsEtAl2025.Model.respondentScore{W : Type u_1}{Q : Type u_2}{R : Type u_3}{A : Type u_4}{D : Type u_5}[MeasurableSpaceW][MeasurableSpaceR](m : ModelWQRAD)[FintypeA][FintypeW][MeasurableSingletonClassW][FintypeR][MeasurableSingletonClassR](p : Params)[MeasurableSpaceQ][FintypeQ][MeasurableSingletonClassQ][MeasurableSpaceD][FintypeD][MeasurableSingletonClassD](πD : MeasureTheory.MeasureD)(πW : MeasureTheory.MeasureW)(q : Q)(r : R) :
Action relevance alone does not enforce truthfulness (§2c), since at β = 1 the respondent
gives every response, false ones included, positive probability.
In the credit-card model, a question asks whether any card of a set is accepted, worlds are
the sets of accepted cards, priors are uniform over the eight worlds, and a response costs the
cards it mentions.
In (5) (Examples.ex5), after yes to the general question a world accepting only MasterCard
keeps positive posterior, but not after yes about American Express.