Comparative probability #
Comparative-likelihood orders ≿ on propositions (Set W) — "A is at least as
likely as B" — after [HI13]: an axiom hierarchy, finitely- and
qualitatively-additive measure semantics, the two world-ordering lifts, and the
generalized finite cancellation theory of imprecise (multi-prior) comparative
probability.
Main definitions #
RightUnion,DeterminedBySingletons— the two likelihood axioms with no mathlib/Defsanalog (the rest areReflexiveand theDefs.leanmixins).EpistemicSystemW/F/FA— bundled axiom systems;EpistemicSystemFAis [HI13]'s logic FA.FinAddMeasure/QualAddMeasure— finitely- and qualitatively-additive probability measures over an ordered field, with their induced orders.dominationLift/matchingLift— the l- and m-liftings of a world preorder.GeneralizedFiniteCancellationandGFCOrder— the cancellation axiom and the GFC order of [HTHI16].
Main statements #
FinAddMeasure.toSystemFA,QualAddMeasure.toSystemFA— measures satisfy FA.FinAddMeasure.toGFCOrder— a measure induces a GFC order.GFCOrder.trans/mono/complRev— derived from cancellation, not stipulated.
Implementation notes #
EpistemicSystemW/F are coarse staging toward EpistemicSystemFA, not
[HI13]'s logics W/F (whose W-to-F step is totality);
labels R/T are mnemonic for the paper's Mon and reflexivity.
The measures are generic over an ordered field K: ℝ gives the paper's literal
[0,1]-valued measures, ℚ the computable theory. On a finite state space the
two agree (rational and real linear feasibility coincide), and only ℚ supports
the constructive Farkas (FourierMotzkin.lean) and decide-checked models
(Representability.lean) behind the representation theorems. FinAddMeasure
overlaps mathlib's MeasureTheory.AddContent and could be re-founded on it;
FinAddMeasure.inducedGe is Order.Preimage m.mu (· ≥ ·).
References #
Axioms #
Two likelihood-relation axioms of [HI13] with no mathlib or
Defs.lean analog. The remaining axioms are mathlib's Reflexive and the
Defs.lean mixin classes IsLikelihoodMono (monotonicity, the paper's Mon),
IsQualitativeAdditive, and IsNontrivial; the systems below carry those as
plain propositional fields.
Right-union (axiom J of [HI13], Figure 4):
A ≿ B → A ≿ C → A ≿ B ∪ C.
Equations
- ComparativeProbability.RightUnion ge = ∀ (A B C : Set W), ge A B → ge A C → ge A (B ∪ C)
Instances For
Determination by singletons: A ≿ {b} → ∃ a ∈ A, {a} ≿ {b}.
Equations
- ComparativeProbability.DeterminedBySingletons ge = ∀ (A : Set W) (b : W), ge A {b} → ∃ a ∈ A, ge {a} {b}
Instances For
Axiom systems #
EpistemicSystemW/F are coarse staging toward EpistemicSystemFA. Fields hold
the bare propositions; the matching Defs.lean mixin instances are below.
A reflexive, monotone likelihood relation (weaker than [HI13]'s
logic W; see the module docstring).
- ge : Set W → Set W → Prop
The "at least as likely as" relation on propositions.
- refl : Reflexive self.ge
Reflexivity.
- mono (A B : Set W) : A ⊆ B → self.ge B A
Monotonicity: supersets are at least as likely.
Instances For
Adds Ω ≿ ∅ and non-triviality.
- bottom : self.ge Set.univ ∅
The tautology is at least as likely as the contradiction.
- nonTrivial : ¬self.ge ∅ Set.univ
Non-triviality: excludes the degenerate all-equivalent order.
Instances For
[HI13]'s logic FA: a total, transitive, qualitatively additive
likelihood order. Sound and complete for qualitatively additive measure semantics
(Theorem 6; [vdH96]), and strictly weaker than finite additivity for
|W| ≥ 5 (Theorem 8, after [KPS59]).
- nonTrivial : ¬self.ge ∅ Set.univ
Totality: any two propositions are comparable.
Transitivity.
Qualitative additivity:
A ≿ B ↔ (A \ B) ≿ (B \ A).
Instances For
FA systems carry the comparative-probability mixins #
An FA system's fields are defeq the Defs.lean mixin classes (a ≤ b is a ⊆ b
on Set W), so the instances below register its relation as a comparative-
probability order, and the validity patterns V1–V13 transfer from
ComparativeProbability.Patterns by instance resolution.
Consequences of the FA axioms #
Add common context: for C disjoint from both X and Y,
X ≿ Y ↔ (X ∪ C) ≿ (Y ∪ C).
Forward form of ge_union_context: context C disjoint from both sides
preserves ≿.
Generalized merge: two valid comparisons with disjoint left parts and
disjoint right parts merge into their union, even with pivot overlaps.
Derivation: add context to each side, transit through X₂ ∪ Y₁, then
restore the pivot X₂ ∩ Y₁ via Axiom A.
Mono-domination: a valid comparison X ≿ Y with X ⊆ P and Q ⊆ Y
proves P ≿ Q.
P ≿ ∅ always (monotonicity).
Measure semantics #
A finitely additive probability measure on subsets of W, valued in an
ordered field K. The value type is left generic: instantiate at ℚ for the
constructive, decide-able representation theory and at ℝ for the paper's
literal [0,1]-valued measures (see the module docstring).
- mu : Set W → K
The measure function
Non-negativity
Finite additivity: μ(A ∪ B) = μ(A) + μ(B) for disjoint A, B
- total : self.mu Set.univ = 1
Normalization
Instances For
Measure-induced comparative likelihood: A ≿ B ↔ μ(A) ≥ μ(B).
Instances For
μ(∅) = 0 for any finitely additive measure. Follows from additivity: μ(∅ ∪ ∅) = μ(∅) + μ(∅), but ∅ ∪ ∅ = ∅.
Subset monotonicity: A ⊆ B → μ(A) ≤ μ(B).
Complement measure: μ(A) + μ(Aᶜ) = 1.
Qualitative additivity for a finitely additive measure: splitting A and B
into the shared part A ∩ B and the private parts cancels the shared part.
Every finitely additive measure satisfies the FA axioms. A fortiori from [HI13] Theorem 6 soundness, since every finitely additive measure is qualitatively additive.
Equations
- m.toSystemFA = { ge := m.inducedGe, refl := ⋯, mono := ⋯, bottom := ⋯, nonTrivial := ⋯, total := ⋯, trans := ⋯, additive := ⋯ }
Instances For
Qualitatively additive measures #
A qualitatively additive measure on subsets of W.
Unlike FinAddMeasure, this does NOT require μ(A ∪ B) = μ(A) + μ(B)
for disjoint A, B. Instead it requires the weaker qualitative additivity
condition: μ(A) ≥ μ(B) ↔ μ(A \ B) ≥ μ(B \ A).
[HI13] Theorem 6: System FA is sound and complete
with respect to qualitatively additive measure models. The completeness
construction (exists_qualAddMeasure_repr) realises μ(∅) = 0 by an
affine renormalisation of the dominated-set count.
- mu : Set W → K
The measure function
Non-negativity
- mu_empty : self.mu ∅ = 0
The impossible proposition has measure zero
- total : self.mu Set.univ = 1
Normalization
Qualitative additivity: μ(A) ≥ μ(B) ↔ μ(A \ B) ≥ μ(B \ A)
Instances For
Measure-induced comparative likelihood: A ≿ B ↔ μ(A) ≥ μ(B).
Instances For
Subset monotonicity: A ⊆ B → μ(A) ≤ μ(B). From qualAdd + μ(∅) = 0 + nonneg.
A qualitatively additive measure induces System FA. Soundness direction of [HI13] Theorem 6: every qualitatively additive measure model satisfies the FA axioms.
Equations
- m.toSystemFA = { ge := m.inducedGe, refl := ⋯, mono := ⋯, bottom := ⋯, nonTrivial := ⋯, total := ⋯, trans := ⋯, additive := ⋯ }
Instances For
Every finitely additive measure is qualitatively additive. Proof: μ(A) = μ(A \ B) + μ(A ∩ B) and μ(B) = μ(B \ A) + μ(A ∩ B), so μ(A) ≥ μ(B) ↔ μ(A \ B) ≥ μ(B \ A).
Instances For
World-ordering lifts #
The l-lifting (Lewis's lifting; [HI13], §5) and its injection refinement, the m-lifting (§9). The l-lifting is the Smyth (upper powerdomain) order; the m-lifting requires distinct dominators (an injection), which avoids the disjunction problem (invalidates I1–I3) while validating V1–V13 (Fact 5).
The l-lifting: A ≿ B iff every b ∈ B is dominated by some a ∈ A.
Equations
- ComparativeProbability.dominationLift ge_w A B = ∀ b ∈ B, ∃ a ∈ A, ge_w a b
Instances For
The m-lifting: A ≿ B iff some injection f : B ↪ A dominates pointwise.
Equations
- ComparativeProbability.matchingLift ge_w A B = ∃ (f : W → W), (∀ b ∈ B, f b ∈ A ∧ ge_w (f b) b) ∧ ∀ (b₁ b₂ : W), b₁ ∈ B → b₂ ∈ B → f b₁ = f b₂ → b₁ = b₂
Instances For
The l-lifting of a reflexive relation is reflexive.
The l-lifting of a reflexive relation is monotone.
The l-lifting satisfies right-union.
Over a total relation, the strict l-lifting collapses to Lewis's ∃∀ comparative possibility: some A-point strictly dominates every B-point. This is the form the metalinguistic comparative takes in [RK24] (there bounded to the cone below an evaluation index, with worlds read as semantic interpretations).
strict_dominationLift_iff with the strict pair packaged as a dominance
relation: whenever below is the strict form of the total ge_w, strict
l-lifting is an ∃∀ clause in below.
Lewis's ∃∀ comparative-possibility clause, localized to the le-cone at
an index and comparing difference sets (P∖Q against Q∖P, the shape of
[Kra12]'s revised lifting), with the dominance relation a parameter —
the single clause behind [RK24]'s ≻ (below the strict
ordering) and ≫ (below = far-below).
Equations
- ComparativeProbability.coneStrictLift le below P Q i = ∃ (a : W), le a i ∧ P a ∧ ¬Q a ∧ ∀ (b : W), le b i → Q b → ¬P b → below b a
Instances For
Equations
- ComparativeProbability.instDecidableConeStrictLiftOfFintypeOfDecidableRelOfDecidablePred le below P Q i = id inferInstance
Whenever below is the strict form of the total ge_w, the
cone-localized clause is the strict l-lifting on the cone difference sets.
The l-lifting satisfies determination by singletons.
The m-lifting of a reflexive relation is reflexive.
The m-lifting of a reflexive relation is monotone.
The l-lifting of a reflexive preorder yields a System W (soundness).
Equations
- ComparativeProbability.dominationLiftSystemW ge_w hRefl = { ge := ComparativeProbability.dominationLift ge_w, refl := ⋯, mono := ⋯ }
Instances For
The m-lifting of a reflexive preorder yields a System W.
Equations
- ComparativeProbability.matchingLiftSystemW ge_w hRefl = { ge := ComparativeProbability.matchingLift ge_w, refl := ⋯, mono := ⋯ }
Instances For
Connection to the ComparativeProbability theory #
Every finitely-additive measure's induced order is a comparative-probability
order (monotone, transitive, qualitatively additive, non-trivial), so the
validity patterns V1–V13 transfer for free from ComparativeProbability.Patterns
by instance resolution — no per-measure arithmetic.
Generalized finite cancellation and GFC orders #
The cancellation theory of imprecise (multi-prior) comparative probability,
following [HTHI16] (after Ríos Insua 1992 and
Alon–Lehrer 2014) and used by [HTHI18]. A pair of
event-sequences is balanced when every state lies in equally many events on
each side; Finite Cancellation (Scott) and its Generalized strengthening
are the cancellation axioms whose Refl + Positivity + Non-triviality companions
characterize representability by a single, resp. a set of, additive measures.
Indicator count of a state across an event sequence.
Equations
- ComparativeProbability.seqCount s Es = (List.map (fun (E : Set W) => if s ∈ E then 1 else 0) Es).sum
Instances For
A balanced pair of event-sequences ([HTHI16]): every state lies in equally many events on the left as on the right.
Equations
- ComparativeProbability.Balanced Es Fs = ∀ (s : W), ComparativeProbability.seqCount s Es = ComparativeProbability.seqCount s Fs
Instances For
Finite Cancellation (Scott's axiom; [HTHI16]):
for every balanced pair ⟨…, X⟩ / ⟨…, Y⟩ whose premise comparisons all hold,
Y ≿ X. (prem carries the paired premise events; X/Y are the heads.)
Equations
- One or more equations did not get rendered due to their size.
Instances For
Generalized Finite Cancellation (Ríos Insua; Alon–Lehrer; the form of
[HTHI16]): like FiniteCancellation, but the
distinguished pair may be repeated r ≥ 1 times. Strictly stronger than
FiniteCancellation for incomplete relations; equivalent under totality.
Equations
- One or more equations did not get rendered due to their size.
Instances For
GFC implies FC (the r = 1 instance).
A GFC order ([HTHI18], after
[HTHI16]): reflexivity, positivity,
non-triviality, and generalized finite cancellation. These four axioms
characterize representability by a nonempty set of additive measures
(E ≿ F ↔ ∀ μ ∈ P, μ E ≥ μ F). Transitivity, monotonicity, and complement
reversal are derived from cancellation (GFCOrder.trans/mono/complRev),
not stipulated.
- ge : Set W → Set W → Prop
The "at least as likely as" relation on propositions.
- refl (A : Set W) : self.ge A A
Reflexivity.
- positivity (A : Set W) : self.ge A ∅
Positivity: every proposition is at least as likely as the contradiction.
- nonTriviality : ¬self.ge ∅ Set.univ
Non-triviality: the contradiction is not at least as likely as the tautology.
- gfc : GeneralizedFiniteCancellation self.ge
Generalized finite cancellation.
Instances For
A GFC order satisfies finite cancellation.
Monotonicity is derived from positivity + cancellation
(balanced sequence ⟨B∖A, A⟩/⟨∅, B⟩).
Measures induce GFC orders #
The measure of a finite set is the sum of its singleton measures.
Every finitely additive measure's induced order is a GFC order: the
Scott / Alon–Lehrer soundness direction (a single measure μ is the
nonempty set {μ}).
Equations
- m.toGFCOrder = { ge := m.inducedGe, refl := ⋯, positivity := ⋯, nonTriviality := ⋯, gfc := ⋯ }